Archive for September, 2009

TSO Reform

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Congratulations to the government for having a decent crack at reforming the “Telecommunications Service Obligation” or TSO. This obligation (primarily to protect residential users by maintaining unpriced local call options and cap line rental increases at the rate of CPI inflation) was a liability accepted by the people that bought Telecom from the government 20 years ago. Its cost would have been factored into the price.

In the lead-up to the 2001 Telecommunications Act which was the first regulation of the industry since privatisation, it was decided to share the “net cost” of the obligation between all telcos. And ever since then, we’ve been fighting over the details of what “net cost” means, how other technologies (notably mobile) affect it, where these loss making customers actually live, etc etc.

The MED  discussion document canvasses several relevant issues. A particularly interesting one is how to estimate the net cost. This is referred to very obliquely by the Herald but Stuff has understood it correctly. Here is how it works.

TSO

The (stylised) red line shows the cost an efficient telco would incur to provide each fixed line connection. For many urban customers its quite low because of economies of density. Out in the sticks it starts to climb rapidly. Everyone pays the same line rental, so Telecom makes a decent profit on many customers (area A) and a loss on some customers (area B).

Up until now, the net cost has been defined as B, based on the view that the profits on cheap connections (A) would be competed away. The new proposal is that it be defined as A – B, so there would only be a loss if there was a nationwide loss, which is pretty unlikely.

Housing & Exporters

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

An interesting suggestion on Saturday from Paul Chrystall via John Roughan: delink property inflation from the exchange rate by taxing the interest on new property loans (when appropriate) at rates set by the Reserve Bank.

I quite like it. Compared with the status quo its not a huge leap, but it addresses a pretty basic issue which is that there may be two legitimate targets for monetary policy, but there is only one instrument: interest rates.

The basic idea is not new though. Here is Bill English scoffing at Michael Cullen’s version back in 2007 and making some good points along the way.

A mortgage tax wouldn’t just hit people speculating on houses in Auckland, it would hit the whole export sector. Farm debt has gone up dramatically in the last few years.

Still, it might not be beyond the wit of the bureacracy to exempt productive assets. The underlying question is whether its worth trying to design an independent tool that might do the job. On that question, I interpret this exchange between Matt Nolan and Andrew Coleman as being 1 each way.

Rent Seeking?

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Advertising is just one way firms compete. Along with prices, availability, service levels etc, ads help persuade people to buy your stuff. Then there are “public service” campaigns, like road safety ads, which also compete for our hearts and minds.  So my working hypothesis has been that ads are fundamentally competitive. At first, I thought this ad (spotted on an Auckland bus today) was evidence against my hypothesis:

AECT

By way of background, AECT is not in competition with anyone. It is a consumer trust that owns 75% of power line company Vector. You too can become a beneficiary of AECT by (a) moving into the right part of Auckland and (b) having your name on the power bill. But AECT doesn’t benefit from you doing this, so where is the competition?

It turns out to be within the AECT, which is preparing a trustee election. This process has already begun, and the voting papers will be out in a couple of weeks. If you are voting, think about this: Would you rather have had $320 and an advertising campaign, or a bigger dividend without a campaign?

Chickens and Dairy

Friday, September 25th, 2009

An economist, possibly a moron, blunders into farming…

Entry into adjacent markets is a major source of innovation.  So is there a case for dairy farmers also running chickens? Chicken manure is nitrogen rich and could substitute for urea, which is derived from fossil fuel. Instead of spreading urea, a flock of chooks could move in after the cows, spread out the cow shit, and add their own nitrogen rich contribution. There’d be a few logistics to sort out, but is it possible to get enough nitrogen this way?

Answer: perhaps, but you’d need a hell of a lot of chooks.

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Smart Morons

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Thanks to Eric Crampton for pointing to Bruce Charlton’s hypothesis that very clever people are social morons because they are very clever. If you get accustomed to independent analysis, you become fascinated by new ideas and under-estimate the value of received wisdom or common sense. I love Charlton’s footnote

I myself am a prime example of a ‘clever silly’; having spent much of adolescence and early adult life passively absorbing high-IQ-elite-approved, ingenious-but-daft ideas that later needed, painfully, to be dismantled. I have eventually been forced to acknowledge that when it comes to the psycho-social domain, the commonsense verdict of the majority of ordinary people throughout history is much more likely to be accurate than the latest fashionably-brilliant insight of the ruling elite. So, this article has been written on the assumption, eminently-challengeable, that although I have nearly-always been wrong in the past – I now am right….

And the whole thing reminded me of Sheldon Cooper’s friend acquisition algorithm:

bigbangfriendalgorithm

Shhh

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Talk about frustrating.

Since 1924, when a motorcyclist was unfairly tried in England, the principle of open justice has been recognised in the idea that justice should not only be done, but also be seen to be done. It implies avoiding even the perception of some kind of conflict or corruption.

Everyone makes mistakes, and a somewhat random sample end up in court as a result. That sample of course includes some of those who run the legal system. Even judges make mistakes. In fact Lord Hewart, the original 1924 source of the principle of open justice was a prime (and ironic) example:

Hewart … has been called the worst Chief Justice since Scroggs and Jeffries in the seventeenth century. I do not think that this is quite fair. When one considers the enormous improvement in judicial standards between the seventeenth and twentieth centuries, I should say that, comparatively speaking, he was the worst Chief Justice ever. (Lord Devlin, via Spigelman J)

ouch! Anyway, the point is that when someone from the justice industry screws up, as we all do at times, that is the very time we need open justice. And what do we get instead?

Name suppression for an ex-MP accused of fraud. Not a good look, but less stunning than…

A secret decision in the Tuhoe Terrorist Trial Why? There was wall-to-wall media coverage of the raids. Shouldn’t we at least know why a whole decision is secret?

And if you’re minded consider such questions, you might also like two more great quotes from Spigelman

Publicity is the authentic hallmark of judicial as distinct from administrative procedure (Privy Council)

Publicity is the very soul of justice. It is the keenest spur to exertion and the surest of all guards against improbity. It keeps the judge, while trying, under trial (Jeremy Bentham)

Claytons ETS

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Kiwis of a certain age will remember Claytons as a risible attempt to pass off an inferior substitute as the real deal. Some marketing genuis came up with the idea of selling soft drink to boozers using the classic punch line: “Claytons, the drink you have when you’re not having a drink”. Pretty soon people were attaching the Claytons brand to anything that didn’t quite measure up, and I guess it was about then that the product was withdrawn (though Wikipedia says the Aussies were still buying it as recently as 2007).

Clayton of the week last week was surely the ETS announcement

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Fonterra’s Capital Structure

Monday, September 21st, 2009

Fonterra’s broadcast to farmers on Friday was pretty impressive I thought. Henry Chairman, Andrew CEO and Blue Farmer were interviewed by Dan Journo (”some of you may remember me from Country Calendar”). The broadcast was interesting from several perspectives: economics, sociology, and dairy farming.

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Happiness, French Style

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Last year, French president Nicolas (tippy-toes) Sarkozy hired Nobel-winning economists Armatya Sen and Joe Stiglitz to work on a happiness indicator for France. The Economist sneered:

Suppose you’re a country’s leader, and your economy is doing pretty lousy. How can you distract attention from the politically dangerous ongoing failure? Measure happiness instead!

Now the report(pdf) is out (HT: NZ Herald) and it sounds fairly sensible to me. Here are the first few recommendations:

1. Shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being

2. When evaluating material well-being, look at income and consumption rather than production

3. Emphasise the household perspective

4. Consider income and consumption jointly with wealth

5. Give more prominence to the distribution of income, consumption and wealth

6. Broaden income measures to non-market activities

Not much to disagree with there IMO, and there seems to be lots more good stuff in the report. Well worth a read, and some potentially very useful lessons for NZ inside I suspect.

Compact Urban Forms

Sunday, September 13th, 2009

Fresh off the USA’s public research pipeline is this fascinating study (HT: TC) of compact urban forms and their impact on vehicle movements and emissions. Auckland councils have been compacting urban forms for a while now, but the arguments have always been qualitative. Transport efficiencies are invariably cited, but this research suggests they’re pretty modest.

The punchline seems to be this.

the committee believes that reductions in VMT, energy use and CO2 emissions resulting from compact, mixed-use development would be in the range of less than 1 percent to 11 percent by 2050, although the committee disagreed about whether the changes in development patterns and public policies necessary to achive the high end of these findings are plausible.

Set alongside similarly small agglomeration benefits, these low transport efficiency estimates do not help the case for a compact Auckland. The USA authors do endorse compact urban form policies, but as an article of faith rather than a deduction from their analysis.