Archive for August, 2009

Maori Bashers Hijacked

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

The diversity of FaceBook groups is amazing, and I’m speaking here as a very occassional dabbler. Who knows what a deep search would uncover?

The last one that got me interested was the superb “Should assault, as part of a good relationship be a criminal offence in NZ?” group that attracted almost 2000 members and many more hilarious spoofs on the ridiculous referendum question.

But now I’m following this little cracker. It was set up as “A group for people who are against Maori getting a free pass to university with no qualifications”, in which form it attracted over 7000 members and elicited opinions every bit as repulsive as the worst of David Farrar’s unmoderated comments sections.

More recently, David Small (who is my brother) has acquired administrative control, changed the description to “This group is a demonstration of the nature of racism in New Zealand”, and started challenging the group. Join the fun here.

NZBORA

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Based on this from Stephen Franks (via DPF) it sounds as though there is some momentum building for changes to the Bill of Rights Act (NZBORA).

I don’t know whether the Russell McVeagh guys Stephen quotes are connected with other NZBORA arguments being advanced by Business NZ (which I discussed below). But it is worth noting that changes to the NZBORA are extremely far-reaching, so lets all pay attention.

On Stephen’s more specific topic of regulating financial advisors, my view is that the massive asymmetries of information/knowledge in this market mean that some regulation is likely to be warranted. Any regulation will inevitably constrain the rights of some people. No regulation would be a disaster for everyone including the supply side. And while legislation should not assume everyone is an idiot, recent NZ financial history suggests there is scope for improvement.

The trick is to find a balance, which is also why potential changes to the NZBORA should be of wider public interest.

Setting NZ Apart

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Congratulations to Business NZ for getting specific in its Plan for Action (pdf) aimed at getting NZ more productive and competitive (undated, but reportedly released a few weeks ago – this post being a refile of one of my earlier posts). I get sick of reading business journalism exhorting us to do better without getting past generalities, so its nice to have actual proposals to chew on. (more…)

Brand NZ

Saturday, August 15th, 2009

The concept of ‘NZ Inc’ is used a lot these days  to refer to things where the national interest could benefit from more centralised planning/action (eg education, politics, science). The meaning is not entirely clear. It seems to lean towards the Singaporean, presumably with more freedom of expression.

Here is a thought experiment: suppose we wanted to refresh/develop New Zealand’s brand. How would we do that, and what would be the result? If this question seems crazy, ask yourself what foreigners think of when they hear “New Zealand”. Like it or not, New Zealand already has many brands: they are whatever people associate with the country. (more…)

Electricity – Actual

Saturday, August 15th, 2009

A couple of thoughts about news reports on the electricity review.

1. Electricity prices have indeed risen significantly in recent years, but so have fuel costs. It would be more sensible to compare power price changes with fuel costs than with the CPI.

2. I’m pleased I was wrong about the weather risk. This has been tackled in 2 ways. One is the $10/household/week penalty for demand reduction campaigns. The engineer’s group IPENZ notes that this “won’t make it rain“, but it does change incentives, and that should have some effect. Quite a neat solution IMHO.

The other tool to address the same problem is the asset swap which will give both Meridian and Genesis a mix of hydro and thermal plant. This is a structural rather than a regulatory solution. Its a low cost option because these are both SOEs. Most tellingly, it is also an implicit admission that the contracts market doesn’t work properly. In principle, these two firms should have been able to (and should have wanted to) contract for exactly the same outcomes as will be delivered by the asset swap. Its a worry that they did not.

Electricity Forecast

Saturday, August 15th, 2009

Originally posted a few weeks ago, then lost:

I’m keen to see where the electricity review process goes. There are so many different parts to this industry, each of which has its own issues, that target selection is a major issue for any review. On the bright side, this means that we will learn something about the deciders by inspecting their choices. (hopefully they will be less emotional than The Standard )

(more…)

Progress

Saturday, August 15th, 2009

Progress, like beauty, is pretty subjective. A con-person is making progress if they can increase the number or value of successful scams per week, but that’s anti-progress for the victims.

Commercial progress, which is basically about wealth creation is a bit similar. Some of the most stunning examples create whole new markets and even look victimless at first glance. But commercial progress does usually destroy old business models along the way, and in the process people get hurt and/or disturbed.

So we can’t reasonably advocate commercial progress while also supporting only Pareto optimal change. Put another way, some individuals will almost always suffer as a result of commercial progress.

Does that matter? Well maybe it depends on how you view individual rights relative to commercial progress. My own view is that commercial progress is inevitable, usually beneficial and a major contributor to our standard of living. But there are some ironies in that position, such as it being based on a inter-personal comparisons of welfare (ie being willing to accept the temporary sacrifice of wellbeing by those who depend on the old business models), and basically involving a  random redistribution of income, both things that have a socialist flavour to them.

Dairy Auction

Monday, August 10th, 2009

In what looks to be a confusion between process and outcome, Federated Farmers wants an economist to inspect Fonterra’s dairy auction (HT: RNZHerald).

Commodity auctions are pretty straight-forward. They are not like a spectrum auction, where the value I attach to one chunk can depend on what other chunks I own. You’d have to be pretty incompetent to screw up the design of a commodity auction.

It looks to me as though the Feds mainly don’t like the fact that dairy prices have been falling since the auction started (apart from the last round when the price went up). They are not alone; the Europeans have a similar complaint.

There must be a fair chance that the market is working properly and demand is just weak (GFC anyone?). While it would be excellent economist-geek fun to get an inside look at the dairy auction process, I would not be holding my breath when looking for poor design.

Progressive Turmoil?

Monday, August 10th, 2009

This probably sounds like a funny name for a blog. It’s based on a line by a long dead economist who lived through epic changes and concluded that economic progress, in capitalist society, means turmoil.

I admit to quite liking a nice bit of turmoil. Who can object to economic progress? And capitalism is like democracy: the worst system immaginable apart from all the others.  Hence the name.

From the top…

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

I still have no idea where all my posts and the associated comments went to. I didn’t delete them, but they are gone.

So anyway, here I go again. The plan is to repost my 11 earlier posts, in order over the coming week or so, interspersed with some new stuff.